the Goldman Sachs Group analysts believe that the increase in global coal demand is only 15 million tons per year
Recently, Goldman Sachs released a report that the sharp decline in China's thermal coal imports from 2016 onwards. Since China is currently the world's largest importer of thermal coal, which will make the world's seaborne coal prices further pressure. Previous reports from Goldman Sachs, the global coal import and export in recent years has been holding more pessimistic attitude.
The latest report showed a sharp reduction in Chinese demand for imported steam coal seaborne thermal coal prices will cause. Goldman Sachs analysts Newcastle received a low base 6000 kcal thermal coal spot FOB 2016 forecast by 17% to $ 54 / ton (236 yuan / ton), and the 2017 forecast by 21% to $ 52 / ton.
In fact, China has entered the depths of winter coal market, coal prices since the second half of 2012 into a downward spiral since the recent Bohai thermal coal index for the first time fell below 400 yuan / ton mark, to close at 396 yuan / ton. The number of imported coal has dropped sharply. Customs data show that by 2015, eight months, the number of imported Chinese coal and lignite for 138.59 million tons, down 31.3 percent, while imports amounted 53 billion yuan, down 45.4%, average import price of 382.4 yuan per ton, down 20.5%. However, overcapacity, while demand is difficult to improve. China Electricity Council is expected this year increase in electricity consumption will be about 2 percent, the record low in 17 years. It means that the future will still be easy or hard coal prices rose. Early in the second half of 2014, the Chinese Government for the coal industry overall loss has issued a series of bailout policies, including improving policy import coal into the Chinese market threshold.
It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs had for the global market has also forecast that the import and export thermal coal, thermal coal demand will continue to grow but the growth rate is slower, growth in 2018 was only 2% due to the same factors point to China. Historical data show that 2008--2012 Global thermal coal demand increased 60 million tons per year. But 2013-2018, the Goldman Sachs Group analysts believe that the increase in global coal demand is only 15 million tons per year. India and Japan, South Korea will become the key driver of demand growth.