Black hot little variety "claim kinship" into the meat and potatoes
Turning to the black line, the majority of people the impression that the rebar, iron ore, as well as up coke, coking coal and thermal coal.
In fact, the black line this "family" there are many varieties of pocket, such as steel-making, "msg" silicon manganese, ferrosilicon, and even a nickel because the nickel is mainly used for stainless steel production.
China Securities Journal reporter Statistics found recently in the rising heat of Galvalume steel coil
and iron ore gradually cooling the occasion, coke, coking coal are almost boiling, silicon manganese, nickel and ferrosilicon "distant relatives" Relay is rising. These varieties have hit a new high stage, and both turnover and open interest volume. Insiders said that the black cultivars is along the industry chain gradually warming, the future is still the focus of attention of the commodity markets.
"Dipping" Black: Hu met Nickel catalyst
"Nickel is made of stainless China Prepainted Galvanized Steel Sheet moved, nickel not always recover from it, not chasing steel, nickel-chase!" Futures investors Liu said the end of June, steel and other varieties sudden limit, and then nickel increase is not too large, with the Philippines and other limited production good news are frequent, she chose to make Shanghai more nickel, and the number of Opening, learned a lot.
Liu This move was also "Quxianjiuguo", a surprise move. Since 2016, commodity markets ushered in the long absence of the spring, among which the black line as a leader. So far this year, Black set off a wave of speculation boom, not only iron ore, steel and other traditional Black variety performance in full swing, with some of the industry chain are inextricably linked varieties also find opportunities to become the capital's layout style all their own. Nickel is one of Shanghai, according to China Securities News correspondent statistics, since June 27, Shanghai and Ni main contract rose more than 17%.
"Downstream of nickel is stainless steel, and stainless steel is a special department of industry like black, so black nickel stainless steel and the trend lines have a strong relationship." Everbright precious metals futures analyst exhibition Dapeng pointed out that 85% of nickel Applications in the field of stainless steel, so "nickel - Ni - stainless steel - terminal" constitute the main industrial chain of nickel. Overall, the current round of Black led the Industrial Change, Change the rhythm of nickel and stainless steel is no exception, so the current trend on the strong black lines, also contributed to the price of nickel and stainless steel mood.
However, the show also said Dapeng, nickel and belongs to the nonferrous metals industry, the trend is closely linked with the non-ferrous metals. "If the trend in the same direction and black colored, nickel no controversy; if colored and black opposite trend is in favor of a strong nickel Change party, for example, black rose, colored fall, the nickel trend may tend to black , but the amplitude may not outperform black. "
Of course, for a nickel, the black line is the catalyst. Shanghai Nickel strong performance is not a single reason, both macro factors and fundamentals. Show Dapeng said macro factors reflected in the first quarter of this force monetary and fiscal policies, trade needs to be supported and there is a stage of amplification, which is already in production capacity and go to the inventory phase of the commodities accordingly phased in short supply this year, the overall trade on the strong side in this. From the fundamentals of nickel, the downstream (stainless steel smelting) production release accelerating drive nickel demand growth is expected, in just experienced in 2015 suffering capacity (ferro-nickel and electrolytic nickel) compression process, the nickel-particularly nickel iron supply is very limited funds and confidence, coupled with continued fermentation Philippine nickel ore supply of nickel from the beginning of the year on the subject of sustained attention of funds, eventually leading the rebound in industrial black.
In addition, the Philippine government announced on Thursday that the country has 27 nickel seven were temporarily closed. The new Philippine president warned the mining industry, or to comply with more stringent environmental regulations, or business. Philippines supply side reforms of nickel in nickel prices has become an important support logic.
Show Mirs believes that after the completion of the delivery of nickel possibility ascribed. First, the market for "Golden nine silver ten" high expectations, the pressure will greatly reduce the price of stainless steel, nickel raw materials procurement costs will be synchronized to reduce the pressure; the second is the rainy season of the Philippines, enterprises are facing the rainy season prepared by the library needs the support of nickel ore may indirectly pushing up the price of nickel; the third is still in the early bullish effective, long on efforts to control the disk gradually become favorable, while the short retreat under easily disposable plate forming a wave of rapid pull up. "I therefore delivery after nickel prices something to look forward, if breakthrough new target previous high will be around $ 12,000 / ton, but investors should remember that the nickel is not reversed will appear larger level rally. "
Small breeds counter-attack:
Ferroalloy also "claim kinship"
Black "family", there are other little-known "distant relatives." Silicon manganese, ferro-silicon alloy that "Brothers" is one of them. Recently, ferroalloy 1609 futures contracts traded actively. According to statistics, since July 6, 2016, silicon manganese main contract has risen nearly 36% ferrosilicon was also the main contract rebounded by about 9%.
Alloy steel equivalent of "msg", as a deoxidizer and alloying agent in steelmaking, and silicon can enhance the flexibility and permeability of steel, manganese steel can reduce the brittleness. Our ferroalloy production capacity and output ranks first in the world, production accounts for about 40% of world production. National Bureau of Statistics, 2001-2013, China's ferroalloy production has increased, the output in 2001 was only 4.5083 million tons; in 2013, reached 37,758,700 tons, compared with 2001 increased by nearly 7.5 times.
Futures researcher Xing Lin Hui said ferrosilicon, silicon manganese alloy belong to important species, both use a certain mutual alternative. Generally, ferroalloy prices are mainly determined by the price of steel and electricity, steel prices represent ferroalloy demand factors, while electricity represents a major cost of production of ferroalloys. Therefore, the recent strong rise of the black line, for ferrosilicon, silicon manganese terms have a certain role.
Black strong price performance, silicon manganese, ferrosilicon production capacity last year to go through, to go after the inventory process, this year has been in a state of compensatory growth. "Show Dapeng said.
Of course, no smoke without fire, ferroalloy market is also inseparable trigger fundamentals. Everbright Securities to a recent research report that the central cause environmental supervision silicomanganese prices soared nearly a month. From July 6, 2016 began, silicomanganese prices soared to 2 August has risen to 7300 yuan / ton, soared 55%. The main reason is this rally since July 14 central environmental supervision team stationed in several provinces to carry out environmental inspectors activities, including the main origin of silico-manganese Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi and other places, so that significantly affected the production of silico-manganese , a number of companies to temporarily suspend or averting silicomanganese production. Yield compression superimposed spot market tight, leading to soaring prices in the short term appears silicomanganese.
Everbright Securities also noted that the short-term is expected to remain high price of silico-manganese, or after August 15 have steadily callback. After August 15 environmental supervision ends, with silicomanganese manufacturers resume production, is expected to price or will silicomanganese steady callback, but down the intensity, the speed is limited in the short term, because of the recent manganese ore prices have soared, the high cost of the support silico-manganese price, there are some difficult and complex production has been discontinued for SMEs.
"Lead Big Brother" magic:
Funding the war in recent months contract
If you say that small species has become the meat and potatoes, then the "lead Big Brother" Black Why is there so much magic?
A brokerage senior analyst Liu Jing told the China Securities Journal reporter, strong black lines for several reasons: one is the recent reform of the market for the supply-side concept of speculation. Last week, news that the coal and steel industries to the production schedule is not ideal, as of the end of July, steel, coal industry production capacity to complete 47% of the annual task, respectively, 38%, not more than half, to speed up the supply-side reforms will continue to be the second half of black industrial theme.
Lin Hui also said that some time ago, steel and coal industry to resolve excess capacity and turnaround Ministerial Joint development held a teleconference. Many ministries said that the first seven months of this year, the regional coal to iron and steel production capacity has made some progress, but overall progress is slow. The next phase, to exclude price fluctuations and other disturbing factors, the implementation of the letter to capacity. Data show that the first seven months of this year, the coal industry exit capacity over 9500 tons, accounting for 38% of the annual target; the first seven months, 28 steel-producing regions and the central enterprises totaled Yajian steel production capacity of more than 21 million tons, accounting for only 47% of the annual target. Therefore, the "fine-tuning" is expected and does not affect the determination of the national supply-side reforms, the steady decline in supply, leading to supply and demand continued to improve, some varieties of short-term supply a certain gap, black line for the rise in commodity provides significant support.
From the demand side, the first half of real estate sales and destocking in very good condition, despite the current housing prices have come down year on year growth trend for housing starts in the second half but the market is still a relatively good expectations. The market for "Golden September and Silver October," the traditional market can not falsifiable. Therefore, we can say since June 3 is similar to a black market in April, both supply-side concept of speculation, there is expected to support the demand side. But the demand side of the support can not be sustained.
"It should be said that a large variety of uplink logical form the support for small breeds." Liu Jing said.
It is worth noting that this year there is a black market is a very interesting feature is that for months when not for months. In steel, for example, late last year in mid-July by the 10 main contract will shift to contract 01 contract positions, but the market is still the main contract 10 contract. Liu Jing said that this shows two things: First, the market outlook is not very firm, so the concept of supply and demand in the off-season contract strongest speculation, in other words the current market fundamentals for the future overdraft; part for partial pessimistic outlook funds have begun to layout empty single month away, but the market turning point is difficult to grasp, so the use of bulls in recent months as a hedge protection. In other words, are seeing only positive pulse, the trend is not good, so we must seize the moment the main capital of the stock market and in the layout of the back of the market downturn, when the inflection point occurs remains uncertain.
Insiders pointed out that, under the supply-side capacity to reform the background, Black commodity prices, the overall performance is relatively strong; but too much, too fast will make up the existence of the policy may be relaxed. Current Black high in recent months contract positions, long and short game stalemate, we recommend investors to contract in recent months see more than move, wait for delivery after the 09 contracts, 01 contracts gradually involved in the past.