Black commodities across the board callback

August 15, the domestic black market commodity futures across the board callback. Among them, the main iron ore 1701 contract fell 2.09 percent to 421.5 yuan per ton, rebar 1610 contract fell 0.12 percent to 2571 yuan per ton. In addition, thermal coal fell 0.9%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.55%, coke fell 0.21%. 1701 coke futures contract gains slowed, was up 0.23%.
Market participants pointed out that black commodity pullback is not surprising. From the weekly view, the steel, coking coal, coke, Galvalume steel coil have been rising for three weeks, rising for five weeks and even coal, there are technical correction requirements.
Reform is still good
From a fundamental point of view, black still benefit from favorable supply-side reform.
National Bureau of Statistics data show that China's crude steel, pig iron and steel from January to July cumulative production was 466.52 million tons, 403.25 million tons and 657.05 million tons, down 0.5%, respectively, down 1.4% and 1.9% growth. July crude steel, pig iron and steel output of 66.81 million tons, respectively, 57.81 million tons and 95.94 million tons, an increase of 2.6%, respectively, 1.7% and 4.9%; average daily production was 2.1552 million tons, 1.8648 million tons and 309.48 tons, compared with average daily production in June decreased by 6.93%, 6.35% and 7.82%, average daily production of crude steel this year, the highest since March low.
At the same time, last week the 35 major steel market inventory of 4.055 million tons, an increase of 61,000 tons, an increase of 1.53%; wire rod inventory of 1,109,500 tons, an increase of 50,500 tons, an increase of 4.77%.
Analysts pointed out that, on the whole, the national stock market rebound in steel for the fourth consecutive week, the current national steel inventory levels still down 16.94 percent from a year earlier. The current market in the traditional off-season consumption, sluggish end demand, while rising steel prices in the situation, part of the business inventory accumulation increased, resulting in the transfer of stock from the mills to the market more obvious.
Analysts believe that in July China's Yangtze River and the northern region in large areas of flooding, the commemoration of the 40th anniversary of Tangshan earthquake limited production of environmental protection, environmental protection as well as eight groups of inspectors assigned to central places environmental inspectors, on the part of the production of formed steel prices to some extent.
However, he further said that from January to July China's steel coal to production completion general is not ideal, recent central level bursts of "military order" overweight to capacity, the local and state-owned enterprises task completion time was brought forward to early November and the end, It has launched a comprehensive inspection. Hebei Development and Reform Commission will expedite the implementation of Zhangjiakou, Chengde, Qinhuangdao, Baoding City 4 become "substantially free of Coal City", Zhangjiakou, Baoding, Langfang City 3 will study the development of steel production capacity to withdraw from the program. Capacity policy to force overweight, release of steel production capacity will continue to inhibit the formation of the possibility of short-term supply the domestic market is unlikely to rise significantly.
Coal market, the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association data show, the Qinhuangdao Port August 14 5500,5000 kcal steam coal average price per ton respectively positions 470-480 yuan, 425-435 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, respectively, 5 yuan; port stocks 2.985 million tons, increasing 220,000 tons.
Other media reports, Shenhua August 5500 kcal steam coal in North Port launching a long association monthly 435 yuan per ton price execution, compared with July up 18 yuan per ton. Coal spot prices firm.
CCB containing futures analyst Ji Chun said, spot prices are still rising, but the steel enterprises stored coal low power short-term weakening of coke also continue to rise, expected coking coal, coke choppy this week, we recommend investors along coke per ton 1050-1250 buy low sell high million range, coking coal in the range of 750-900 yuan per ton, buy low sell high. For thermal coal, Ji Chun containing more optimistic, noting that spot prices continue to rise, port stocks began to rise slightly, the downstream plant daily consumption greatly reduced, the current upstream coal grab phenomenon continues, is expected this week, short-term coal prices remain strong.
Macroeconomic involvement
Prior to the market worried about the black commodity prices with the production complex phenomenon not increased, so that investors sigh.
However, macro-economic data remains poor black commodity overshadowed.
Just released in July macroeconomic indicators upset the country. January to July of fixed asset investment grew 8.1%, compared with January - June fell 0.9 percent, marking the lowest since December 1999. Real estate, industrial, infrastructure investment growth fell across the three.
Analysts pointed out that in July the overall economic growth and credit data is less than expected, downward pressure on the domestic economy, weak steel market demand overall performance against a certain confidence in the market, the domestic steel market downturn trend is difficult to change. The recent intensive introduction of second-tier cities of the property market tightening policies will affect the market is expected to a certain extent. Or short-term domestic steel prices will show a weak order trend.
Suner Chun Hing Securities Futures analyst also pointed out that the fundamentals of iron ore and other varieties of charge is not bad, short-term speculation by macroeconomic indicators expected to decline greater impact.
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